Monday, April 26, 2010

The Yuan’s Too Weak – But It’s Not the Real Problem

April 26, 2010

Oh, for a world of easy answers. We’d all like to see China boost the value of its currency because that would help U.S. exports, right? Well, yes – but what about all those unintended consequences?

Start with the fact that China won’t do anything just because the U.S. tells it to. Who’s holding most of the cards in this relationship, anyway? China has been financing our budget deficit for years now, and has stockpiled huge reserves of dollars. Moreover, it’s the favorite place for American manufacturers in search of cheap labor, at least for now. So why should China take steps that would theoretically bolster markets for U.S. goods while making its own products less competitive?

Few would disagree that China has been artificially manipulating the yuan to keep it weak against the dollar. Granted, it let the currency appreciate by around 21 percent over a three-year period, but it has kept the yuan in the neighborhood of more than 6.8 to the dollar since July 2008. U.S. legislators have threatened to take punitive action, in the form of a bill that would allow for the imposition of duties in response to the yuan’s continued under-valuation. The Obama Administration, especially Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, has spoken out on the issue, although in less combative terms. (It’s more apt to make the argument that an abnormally weak yuan hurts other emerging market economies even more than it does the U.S.) And the International Monetary Fund recently urged China to let the yuan appreciate, to cool an expected growth rate of 10 percent this year.

With rampant growth comes inflation, and that’s the reason why China will finally relax its grip on the yuan just a bit. The nation has done a fairly good job of controlling inflation during its dizzying expansion of recent years (again, let’s give a big thanks to our U.S. manufacturers for that windfall), but it’s looking at a rate of better than 5 percent by year’s end, according to some experts.

The prospect of higher inflation will put China’s central bank at loggerheads with the ministries in charge of promoting exports. The former is likely to prevail to at least some degree, without any help from the outside world. So doesn’t that solve the problem, from the standpoint of U.S. interests?

It depends on who those interests are. Certainly, U.S. exporters will benefit, although not necessarily in the form of increased access to China’s domestic markets. The more likely scenario is that American products will do a slightly better job of competing against Chinese goods elsewhere in the world. (So, of course, will products made in the European Union and other countries.)

U.S. importers will be less happy. A cheaper yuan relative to the dollar “means increased costs for companies importing from China, plus rising prices for consumers,” says Josh Green, chief executive officer of Panjiva, a specialist in procurement and strategic sourcing. Let’s be realistic: there are massive amounts of product flowing into the U.S. from China, and higher costs in that area will have a much greater impact on the American economy than a marginally better edge for U.S. exports in world markets. That $39.7bn U.S. trade deficit for February 2010 tells the story about where the action in this economy really is.

Green says American interests are getting steamed up about the wrong thing. What they should be fighting for is access to China’s own markets through fairer trading policies, and the way to do that isn’t by squabbling over the yuan. “Currency,” he says, “is a little bit of a sideshow.” In fact, putting pressure on China in that area could lead to trade disputes that limit access even more. That’s essentially the argument made by the Retail Industry Leaders Association, which recently issued a statement supporting international efforts “to encourage broader financial sector reforms that will enable China to accelerate its removal of capital controls and allow market forces to fully determine the value of its currency.”

Green has some practical advice for U.S. companies looking to minimize the impact of the yuan’s inevitable re-valuation. One crucial step “is to really dig in and understand as much as you can about the health of your Chinese suppliers.” Be aware of how those contracts are structured, and how they might be threatened by currency shifts. A lot of suppliers are going to get hurt by the change, he says. Are they yours?

Step two is to lock in prices in dollars to the greatest extent possible. But don’t go overboard; Chinese suppliers know that currency changes are coming and might resist attempts by their U.S. customers to place them at increased risk. Call this one a delicate balancing act.

Finally, U.S. manufacturers need to think about diversifying their sourcing, if they haven’t already. Many companies are becoming deeply concerned about rising labor costs in China, as well as the risks that come with longer supply lines. They’re looking to relocate at least a portion of their offshore manufacturing, perhaps to Mexico or elsewhere in Latin America. (Some are even talking about producing in the U.S., but don’t get too excited about that trend. A big migration of manufacturing back to American soil is highly unlikely, to say the least.)

Even with a cheaper yuan, China will remain an attractive place for offshore production for years to come. But nothing lasts forever – despite all those experts who never seem to see the bubble forming – and companies need to give serious thought to their alternatives. For those who stopped thinking strategically when the recession hit, it’s time to get out of survival mode. “There’s no shame in that,” says Green, “but now that we’re starting to see movement in China’s policies, you’re really setting yourselves up for trouble if you don’t address it.”

- Robert J. Bowman, SupplyChainBrain

The Yuan’s Too Weak – But It’s Not the Real Problem

The Yuan’s Too Weak – But It’s Not the Real Problem

April 26, 2010

Oh, for a world of easy answers. We’d all like to see China boost the value of its currency because that would help U.S. exports, right? Well, yes – but what about all those unintended consequences?

Start with the fact that China won’t do anything just because the U.S. tells it to. Who’s holding most of the cards in this relationship, anyway? China has been financing our budget deficit for years now, and has stockpiled huge reserves of dollars. Moreover, it’s the favorite place for American manufacturers in search of cheap labor, at least for now. So why should China take steps that would theoretically bolster markets for U.S. goods while making its own products less competitive?

Few would disagree that China has been artificially manipulating the yuan to keep it weak against the dollar. Granted, it let the currency appreciate by around 21 percent over a three-year period, but it has kept the yuan in the neighborhood of more than 6.8 to the dollar since July 2008. U.S. legislators have threatened to take punitive action, in the form of a bill that would allow for the imposition of duties in response to the yuan’s continued under-valuation. The Obama Administration, especially Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, has spoken out on the issue, although in less combative terms. (It’s more apt to make the argument that an abnormally weak yuan hurts other emerging market economies even more than it does the U.S.) And the International Monetary Fund recently urged China to let the yuan appreciate, to cool an expected growth rate of 10 percent this year.

With rampant growth comes inflation, and that’s the reason why China will finally relax its grip on the yuan just a bit. The nation has done a fairly good job of controlling inflation during its dizzying expansion of recent years (again, let’s give a big thanks to our U.S. manufacturers for that windfall), but it’s looking at a rate of better than 5 percent by year’s end, according to some experts.

The prospect of higher inflation will put China’s central bank at loggerheads with the ministries in charge of promoting exports. The former is likely to prevail to at least some degree, without any help from the outside world. So doesn’t that solve the problem, from the standpoint of U.S. interests?

It depends on who those interests are. Certainly, U.S. exporters will benefit, although not necessarily in the form of increased access to China’s domestic markets. The more likely scenario is that American products will do a slightly better job of competing against Chinese goods elsewhere in the world. (So, of course, will products made in the European Union and other countries.)

U.S. importers will be less happy. A cheaper yuan relative to the dollar “means increased costs for companies importing from China, plus rising prices for consumers,” says Josh Green, chief executive officer of Panjiva, a specialist in procurement and strategic sourcing. Let’s be realistic: there are massive amounts of product flowing into the U.S. from China, and higher costs in that area will have a much greater impact on the American economy than a marginally better edge for U.S. exports in world markets. That $39.7bn U.S. trade deficit for February 2010 tells the story about where the action in this economy really is.

Green says American interests are getting steamed up about the wrong thing. What they should be fighting for is access to China’s own markets through fairer trading policies, and the way to do that isn’t by squabbling over the yuan. “Currency,” he says, “is a little bit of a sideshow.” In fact, putting pressure on China in that area could lead to trade disputes that limit access even more. That’s essentially the argument made by the Retail Industry Leaders Association, which recently issued a statement supporting international efforts “to encourage broader financial sector reforms that will enable China to accelerate its removal of capital controls and allow market forces to fully determine the value of its currency.”

Green has some practical advice for U.S. companies looking to minimize the impact of the yuan’s inevitable re-valuation. One crucial step “is to really dig in and understand as much as you can about the health of your Chinese suppliers.” Be aware of how those contracts are structured, and how they might be threatened by currency shifts. A lot of suppliers are going to get hurt by the change, he says. Are they yours?

Step two is to lock in prices in dollars to the greatest extent possible. But don’t go overboard; Chinese suppliers know that currency changes are coming and might resist attempts by their U.S. customers to place them at increased risk. Call this one a delicate balancing act.

Finally, U.S. manufacturers need to think about diversifying their sourcing, if they haven’t already. Many companies are becoming deeply concerned about rising labor costs in China, as well as the risks that come with longer supply lines. They’re looking to relocate at least a portion of their offshore manufacturing, perhaps to Mexico or elsewhere in Latin America. (Some are even talking about producing in the U.S., but don’t get too excited about that trend. A big migration of manufacturing back to American soil is highly unlikely, to say the least.)

Even with a cheaper yuan, China will remain an attractive place for offshore production for years to come. But nothing lasts forever – despite all those experts who never seem to see the bubble forming – and companies need to give serious thought to their alternatives. For those who stopped thinking strategically when the recession hit, it’s time to get out of survival mode. “There’s no shame in that,” says Green, “but now that we’re starting to see movement in China’s policies, you’re really setting yourselves up for trouble if you don’t address it.”

- Robert J. Bowman, SupplyChainBrain

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Success

ast week I introduced the New Science of Success and talked
about the four components of Who, What, Why and How some
people achieve extraordinary results. There truly is a
science, a formula or predictability to success. This week I
want to talk about Who achieves success.

We have long known that many so-called predictors of success
are totally unreliable. Rich kids end up as failures. Bright
kids end up working for other people. Attractive kids grow
up to be lonely. The most popular kids and best athletes do
no better (and often worse) than the "average" kids.
Ambitious kids flame out, and so forth.

So what does predict success? Who gets to achieve external
success (wealth, fame, power, prestige, etc) and the
internal blessing of happiness? What are the predictors of
success in both realms? Who are the winners who have the
things we want on the outside, while also having peace and
fulfillment on the inside? Who gets that???

There are specific skills and behaviors that highly
successful people share and the good news is that they are
not genetic! You do not have to be born "lucky!" You can
learn or acquire these things. Here are a few of the traits
and skills of highly successful people:

1. A paradox. Success is a "do-it-yourself" project and yet
no one gets there on their own. Successful people LEARN to
be successful by watching and emulating successful people.
Winners attend the seminars, take the classes, read the
books (including biographies) and work with coaches and
mentors. I was reminded of that this week when Vic sent his
special about the Jim Rohn recordings. Jim taught me a lot!
Hanging around him, watching him, learning from him was one
of the best investments I've ever made.

2. Simplicity. This is a very sophisticated concept and
has more to do with balance or clarity than with the number
of appointments on your calendar. I've met famous business
leaders who lead astonishingly quiet, orderly lives. Others
are busy, high-energy, on-the-go, making deals every day.
The outward "style" is not the issue. It's their inner quiet.
Successful people know who they are, keep their feet on the
ground, and are rarely stressed.

3. Focused ambition. Successful people are ambitious, but
their ambition is aimed at a very precise outcome. They work
hard, but they are rarely ambitious for "success." Rather,
they are focused on a precisely-defined result. Their ambition
is not to "be successful" or to "become" anything! Whether
their success is teaching a 5-year old to read or building a
global enterprise, their ambition is focused and specific.

4. Insatiable curiosity. Successful people know there is a
way to achieve their goals and they will try any legal,
ethical technique. They ask for suggestions, borrow ideas,
modify techniques, study and ponder until they find the
solutions. Remember Sir Isaac Newton and his insight about
the nature of the universe when an apple fell from a tree?
Successful people are eager, curious observers.

5. Determination without stubbornness. Again we're back to
a paradox. Successful people never stop. They are hard
working, persistent people who never, ever give up. But,
they can change their mind in an instant. They are open to
new information, a new way, a new solution and when they
find it, they can instantly change direction. No one sees
them as unpredictable or chaotic, but when they find a
better solution, they grab it.

Success is built on skills that can be learned. The skills
come more easily to some than others, but anyone can nurture
their curiosity. Anyone can learn from a mentor. We can all
persist and "stay the course" in hard times. We can all
learn the skills and achieve success in life. So, Who gets
to achieve success? Anyone who will study, learn and use the
skills of highly successful people.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Inspiration

Message
1a. One red rose
Posted by: "Susan Gregg" susan@susangregg.com susanegregg
Thu Apr 22, 2010 3:48 pm (PDT)


When I was a little girl I used to bring my mother one red rose if
I was going to be home late. Years later I told her why I brought her
the roses and her face fell in disbelief. I had no idea how much
those roses had meant to her until that moment.

Sometimes we have no idea how much impact our actions can have. All
of our relationships are ultimately a refection of our relationship
with ourselves. Send ripples of kindness into your life and watch
those ripples spread.

--

With love and aloha,
Susan Gregg

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Leadership

Great Leadership

Challenging times require leaders who can lead others through the challenges. Now more than ever we need great leadership in our government, schools, businesses, hospitals and organizations. Good leadership won’t suffice. We need great leadership. There is a difference.

Good leaders get people to believe in them.
Great leaders inspire people to believe in themselves.
Good leaders say “Watch what I can do.”
Great leaders say “Let me show you what you can do.”
Good leaders catch fish for others so they can eat today.
Great leaders teach people how to fish so they can eat for a lifetime.
Having worked with countless leaders over the years in businesses, schools and professional sports I’ve realized that great leadership is really a transfer of belief. Great leaders share their belief, vision, purpose and passion with others and in the process they inspire others to believe, act and impact. Great leaders are positively contagious and they instill confidence and belief in others.

Great sales managers inspire their sales people to believe in themselves and their product/service. Great school principals inspire their teachers to believe they can make a difference. Great teachers inspire and empower their students to believe in themselves. Great pastors inspire their congregations to serve and impact the community. Great sports coaches inspire their teams to believe they can win. And the people who have changed the world have been those who instilled in others the confidence to step up, serve, take initiative and create positive change. You don’t need a title to be a leader. You just need to lead.

To lead others in a powerful way you must invite them on your bus, share your vision for the road ahead and then encourage, empower and inspire them to drive their own bus. In the process, instead of having just one bus that you drive, you create a fleet of buses and bus drivers, all moving in the same positive direction. When you create a fleet of buses and empower people to drive their own bus, you generate an amazing amount of power and momentum that becomes an unstoppable force. This is what great leadership is all about.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Success

Success and achievement in life--from parenting to fitness
to money or time management, to wealth, fame, power or
athletic prowess--is the result of mastering the
fundamentals. It's about approaching the task as a problem
to be solved, as a set of skills to be learned and applied.
In that sense, as long as we live in a predictable, orderly
universe, success is basically an engineering problem. What
a concept!

I anticipate expanding on this in many ways, for a long time
to come. I don't know where it will lead but here are some
of my initial thoughts on the Who, What, Why and How of
success:

1. Success comes to those who are prepared. Success comes
to some people more readily than others, but the difference
has nothing (nothing!) to do with luck or genetic talent or
family background. It comes to people who are balanced,
healthy, and structured. It is not attracted to scenes of
chaos, drama, confusion or impulsivity. Success in the outer
world is built on mastering one's own inner world. Get good
at living on purpose, with balance, enthusiasm, focus and
energy.

2. Success comes to those who know what it is. Success
comes to those who have defined their outcomes in advance,
who know their purpose and are committed to their goals.
Success is not about "a little of this and some of that."
It's not about starting over or giving up when things get
hard. Success is about defining what you want, knowing where
you're going, and pursuing your goals with creative,
persistent determination.

3. Success comes to those who know why they want it.
Success comes from purpose and passion, from having powerful
reasons for success. Successful people are described as
"driven" by a dream or "pulled" by their sense of mission.
They are rarely distracted, seldom confused and they never
give up. It's often impossible to tell whether they have a
dream or the dream has them. They stay the course because
it's important. They have their reasons.

4. Success comes to those who know how. Success requires
effective strategies, solid plans, a budget, a schedule and
talented partners, coaches and teammates. Success is not
random! We live in a orderly, predictable world and
successful people often spend more time developing their
"blueprint" or "path" than it takes to achieve their goals
once they get into action. Eager, impulsive failures tend to
launch before they are ready. Winners focus on the plan.
They know how their plan is going to work, and they work
their plan.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Play to Win!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


News Letter
Play to Win -The Productivity Coach
April 11, 2010



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Personal and Professional Productivity

Success and "The Good Life" are based on The Four Lists.


List 1: Your Core Values.

Knowing what you believe, what you value, what you stand for, is essential. Your values are your compass. They are the touchstone against which everything else is measured. There are hundreds of values that compete for your attention, and it is vital to know which ones you have consciously chosen to be at the center of your life. If you aren’t clear what you stand for, you'll wander forever, lost in a world of endless choices and spur-of-the-moment decisions.
As a result, your chances for long-term success are greatly diminished. Among others, my own short list of primary values includes integrity, loyalty, and "putting in before you take out." I value persistence, consistency and reliability. Curiosity and creativity are high on my list. Encouraging people to fulfill their potential and pursue their dreams are the core of who I am as a person. What's on your list? Have you written it down? Have you reviewed it with loved ones, and up-dated it recently? Knowing your Core Values is List One.


List 2: Your Goals and Priorities.

Where are you going and what are you doing with your wonderful life? What are your 5- and 10-year priorities? What are the big pieces that get your time and your best efforts? Have you written your goals down, and shared the list with your partners, family and friends? Have you reviewed it recently and up-dated it at least once a year? Do you know why you're working so hard and how you'll measure success ten years from now? Write your Major Goals down! List #2 is essential.


List 3: Your Current Projects.

Do you have a spring campaign, or a 6-week project? Highly successful people know their priorities and they work on them every day. They have 30-day targets, and quarterly deadlines. They have a list of items to be completed by the end of the month. What are you working on? How much progress will you make by 5:00 P.M. Friday afternoon? Highly successful people always work from a written list of short-term projects. They always know the next step, the most important piece of the puzzle, and they don't waste time. What's on your list of projects?


List 4: Your Daily Musts.

High achievers know their daily actions in advance. They plan their days, and they know the things that "must" be done each and every day. They have a written list of their "Daily Five" or "Power 8" that may include things like exercise, meditation or prayer, time to plan, and other daily actions to create the life they truly want. My personal list includes time to read, and contacting a colleague or loved one to touch base, every day. What's on your "Daily List?" Take care of yourself. Have some fun, live well, move forward every day! Do the things that create and build the life you really want, and do them every single day.

These are the four lists that make life worthwhile. They are the lists that high achievers keep close to their hearts and on top of their desks. They are the lists that guide their actions and inform their efforts. They may be written on simple note paper, but they are fundamental to creating and living the life your truly want. What's on your lists?


If you would like additional information regarding the manner in which you can increase you personal productivity and the productivity of your team contact Dr. Edward Knab for a free consultation regarding the opportunities in your environment.

If your company is attempting to cope with turbulence in your supply chain or if you would like to see your productivity and competitiveness improved; the Supply Chain Experts can help design a program that satisfies your requirements.


Dr. Edward F. Knab
Productivity Constructs, Inc.
800 660 8718 office
949 413 7333 mobile
ed@edwardknab.com
www.productivityconstructs.com
More Supply Chain Experts Blogs

Dr. Knab is an academic practitioner, expert in distribution center and supply chain design. His company, Productivity Constructs, Inc., is focused improving global supply chain leadership and thereby creating more efficient organizations. Dr. Knab can be contacted for speaking engagements, coaching, or consultation at efk@productivityconstructs.com, ed@ewardknab.com or www.edwardknab.com.
Tags: Chain, customer, Distribution, efficiency, Management, satisfaction, Supply, System, Warehouse, WMS




© Productivity Constructs, Inc. 2010

4 Lists for Success

Success and "The Good Life" are based on The Four Lists.

List 1: Your Core Values. Knowing what you believe, what
you value, what you stand for, is essential. Your values are
your compass. They are the touchstone against which
everything else is measured.

There are hundreds of values that compete for your
attention, and it is vital to know which ones you have
consciously chosen to be at the center of your life. If you
aren’t clear what you stand for, you'll wander forever, lost
in a world of endless choices and spur-of-the-moment decisions.
As a result, your chances for long-term success are greatly
diminished.

Among others, my own short list of primary values includes
integrity, loyalty, and "putting in before you take out." I
value persistence, consistency and reliability. Curiosity
and creativity are high on my list. Encouraging people to
fulfill their potential and pursue their dreams are the
core of who I am as a person.

What's on your list? Have you written it down? Have you
reviewed it with loved ones, and up-dated it recently?
Knowing your Core Values is List One.

List 2: Your Goals and Priorities. Where are you going and
what are you doing with your wonderful life? What are your
5- and 10-year priorities? What are the big pieces that get
your time and your best efforts?

Have you written your goals down, and shared the list with
your partners, family and friends? Have you reviewed it
recently and up-dated it at least once a year? Do you know
why you're working so hard and how you'll measure success
ten years from now? Write your Major Goals down! List #2 is
essential.

List 3: Your Current Projects. Do you have a spring
campaign, or a 6-week project? Highly successful people know
their priorities and they work on them every day. They have
30-day targets, and quarterly deadlines. They have a list of
items to be completed by the end of the month. What are you
working on? How much progress will you make by 5:00 P.M.
Friday afternoon?

Highly successful people always work from a written list of
short-term projects. They always know the next step, the
most important piece of the puzzle, and they don't waste
time. What's on your list of projects?

List 4: Your Daily Musts. High achievers know their daily
actions in advance. They plan their days, and they know the
things that "must" be done each and every day. They have a
written list of their "Daily Five" or "Power 8" that may
include things like exercise, meditation or prayer, time to
plan, and other daily actions to create the life they truly
want. My personal list includes time to read, and contacting
a colleague or loved one to touch base, every day.

What's on your "Daily List?" Take care of yourself. Have
some fun, live well, move forward every day! Do the things
that create and build the life you really want, and do them
every single day.

These are the four lists that make life worthwhile. They are
the lists that high achievers keep close to their hearts and
on top of their desks. They are the lists that guide their
actions and inform their efforts. They may be written on
simple note paper, but they are fundamental to creating and
living the life your truly want. What's on your lists?